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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model