4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Steve Spagnuolo
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

PHI
60.4%
NYG
39.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.086 vs Nick Foles (PHI) -0.254 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Nick Foles in place of Carson Wentz)
  • NYG defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: PHI by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

PHI

Stefen Wisniewski G Questionable Ankle

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Hamstring
Landon Collins S Doubtful Ankle
Brandon Dixon CB Questionable Heel
Roger Lewis WR Questionable Ankle
Travis Rudolph WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 34
–
NYG 29

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 TD NYG (9:08) 26-O.Darkwa right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 05:35 TD PHI (5:35) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 6 – NYG 6
  • Q1 01:31 TD NYG (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 12-T.King for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – NYG 12
  • Q2 13:58 TD NYG (13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-C.Long]. PHI 7 – NYG 19
  • Q2 04:54 TD PHI (4:54) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NYG 20
  • Q2 02:24 TD PHI (2:24) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 88-T.Burton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYG 20
  • Q2 00:31 FG NYG (:31) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. PHI 21 – NYG 23
  • Q3 09:22 FG PHI (9:22) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 24 – NYG 23
  • Q3 05:57 TD PHI (5:57) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 13-N.Agholor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – NYG 23
  • Q3 02:16 TD NYG (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 12-T.King for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 31 – NYG 29
  • Q4 03:59 FG PHI (3:59) 4-J.Elliott 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 34 – NYG 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (14:56) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:15) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-52-N.Goode.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:48) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to PHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 45%

    (7:09) 29-L.Blount up the middle to NYG 44 for no gain (33-A.Adams).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:23) 9-B.Wing punt is BLOCKED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, recovered by NYG-27-D.Thompson at NYG 18. 27-D.Thompson to NYG 18 for no gain (30-C.Clement).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:31) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (9:22) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:46) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to PHI 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:08) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 19, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%

    (11:34) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (3:59) 4-J.Elliott 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 96%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram. PENALTY on NYG-87-S.Shepard, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:24) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 27 for 7 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).