Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 71

New York Giants 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-B.Wing punt is BLOCKED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, recovered by NYG-27-D.Thompson at NYG 18. 27-D.Thompson to NYG 18 for no gain (30-C.Clement).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.72 EP
56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model