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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model