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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

ATL
39.2%
NO
60.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.216 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 24
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ATL

Andy Levitre G Questionable Triceps

NO

Garrett Griffin TE Out Foot
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Ankle
Michael Hoomanawanui TE Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 13
–
NO 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:37 FG NO (7:37) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 0 – NO 3
  • Q2 01:23 FG NO (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 0 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:22 TD NO (:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 30, YAC 24 ATL 0 – NO 12
  • Q3 09:39 FG ATL (9:39) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – NO 13
  • Q3 02:59 TD NO (2:59) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – NO 19
  • Q4 10:23 FG ATL (10:23) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – NO 20
  • Q4 03:43 FG NO (3:43) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 6 – NO 23
  • Q4 02:44 TD ATL (2:44) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 8 ATL 12 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to NO 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis to NO 38 for 18 yards (80-L.Toilolo).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

    (7:37) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:54) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis to NO 17 for 7 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 20 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to ATL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (3:30) 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram right guard to ATL 11 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:06) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to 50, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to NO 48 for 2 yards (86-J.Phillips).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (9:39) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 21 for 8 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to NO 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 31 for 8 yards (40-D.Coleman). PENALTY on ATL-40-D.Coleman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (15:00) 24-D.Freeman left guard to NO 1 for no gain (44-H.Kikaha; 20-K.Crawley).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:35) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to NO 48 for 19 yards (56-M.Mauti).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (10:23) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 33%

    (6:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 17 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to ATL 43, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis to ATL 33 for 10 yards (42-D.Riley).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 83%

    (3:43) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-Ju.Jones pushed ob at NO 31 for 37 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 2, YAC 35

  • Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to ATL 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.