Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(11:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to NO 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis to NO 38 for 18 yards (80-L.Toilolo).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model