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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model