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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 24-D.Freeman left guard to NO 1 for no gain (44-H.Kikaha; 20-K.Crawley).

The Three Options

GO +3.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model