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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model