Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 97

Atlanta Falcons 6 – New Orleans Saints 20

(4:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to ATL 43, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis to ATL 33 for 10 yards (42-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -3.95 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 97, worth -5.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model