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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.62 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model