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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 6 – New Orleans Saints 23

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-Ju.Jones pushed ob at NO 31 for 37 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 2, YAC 35

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -1.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model