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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model