Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 23 – Atlanta Falcons 13

(:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to ATL 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -1.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model