Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to ATL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.12 EP
74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model