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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to NE 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model