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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
18.3%
NE
81.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.241 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) -0.008 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 18
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Andre Holmes WR Out Neck
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Groin
Kelvin Benjamin WR Questionable Knee
E.J. Gaines CB Questionable Knee
John Miller G Questionable Ankle
Nick O'Leary TE Questionable Back

NE

Alan Branch DT Out Knee
Rex Burkhead RB Out Knee
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Groin
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Shoulder
Brandon King S Questionable Hamstring
Eric Lee DE Questionable Ankle
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Calf
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Ankle
James White RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
NE 37

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:36 FG BUF (5:36) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 14:18 FG NE (14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. BUF 3 – NE 3
  • Q2 10:37 TD BUF (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 85-K.Britt INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 19. 21-J.Poyer for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NE 3
  • Q2 07:13 TD NE (7:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 75th career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, 5th all-time. BUF 10 – NE 9
  • Q2 02:00 FG NE (2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 1,601 career pts, 19th all-time to achieve that milestone. BUF 10 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG BUF (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – NE 13
  • Q3 10:25 FG BUF (10:25) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – NE 13
  • Q3 05:12 FG NE (5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. BUF 16 – NE 16
  • Q3 01:01 TD NE (1:01) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – NE 22
  • Q4 09:32 TD NE (9:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 30th TD pass of season, extends record for most all-time in a season after turning 40. NE 12-Brady 7th season with 30+ TD pass, 4th all-time (Brees, Favre & P.Manning, 9). BUF 16 – NE 29
  • Q4 04:01 TD NE (4:01) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – NE 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:41) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%

    (5:36) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (11:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at NE 12 for -6 yards (59-M.Flowers).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:02) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to NE 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 88%

    (2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 1,601 career pts, 19th all-time to achieve that milestone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (10:25) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%

    (8:02) (No Huddle) 33-D.Lewis left tackle to BUF 26 for no gain (52-P.Brown; 56-R.Davis). New England challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle) 33-D.Lewis left tackle to BUF 25 for 1 yard (52-P.Brown; 58-M.Milano).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to NE 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-D.Amendola to NE 35 for 10 yards (50-R.Humber).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 70%

    (13:13) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 84-N.O'Leary.