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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 26

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (No Huddle) 33-D.Lewis left tackle to BUF 26 for no gain (52-P.Brown; 56-R.Davis). New England challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle) 33-D.Lewis left tackle to BUF 25 for 1 yard (52-P.Brown; 58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model