Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 16

(3:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to NE 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-D.Amendola to NE 35 for 10 yards (50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model