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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 10 at the 50
Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 37
What Actually Happened
(2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 84-N.O'Leary.
The Three Options
GO
-0.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.41 EP
- 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
-0.71 EP
- 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
- 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
