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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 82

Chicago Bears 6 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CLE 32, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 41 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model