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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread 5.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

CLE
31.1%
CHI
68.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.083 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.262 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CLE

Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB Questionable Knee
Matt Hazel WR Questionable Hamstring
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Foot

CHI

Josh Sitton G Doubtful Ankle
Tom Compton T Questionable Concussion
Chris Prosinski S Questionable Concussion
Adam Shaheen TE Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 3
–
CHI 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:23 TD CHI (1:23) 24-Jo.Howard right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-70-B.Massie was injured during the play. CLE 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:06 FG CLE (:06) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – CHI 6
  • Q3 12:30 TD CHI (12:30) 24-Jo.Howard left guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CHI 12
  • Q3 03:33 TD CHI (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:06) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-36-D.Smith.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 43 for 28 yards (36-D.Smith).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:24) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 58 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for no gain (80-R.Louis).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CLE 32, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 41 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:14) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to CLE 22, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:43) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 22 for 9 yards (53-J.Timu).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to CHI 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for -1 yards (80-R.Louis).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (4:47) 24-Jo.Howard right guard to CLE 7 for 8 yards (21-J.Taylor). Penalty on CLE-22-J.Peppers, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:13) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:53) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:27) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CLE 45, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CHI 43 for 12 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). FUMBLES (36-D.Houston-Carson), recovered by CLE-36-D.Smith at CHI 43. 36-D.Smith to CHI 45 for -2 yards (52-C.Jones). PENALTY on CLE-10-S.Coates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 45. Penalty on CLE-80-R.Louis, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:57) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:53) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CLE 42, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CHI 49 for 9 yards (52-C.Jones).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 55%

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left intended for 81-R.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [93-S.Acho] at CHI 37. 37-B.Callahan to CLE 42 for 21 yards (34-I.Crowell).