4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-36-D.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 22, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model