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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 3 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(11:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to CHI 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for -1 yards (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.96 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model