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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 92

Chicago Bears 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CLE 42, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CHI 49 for 9 yards (52-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 50, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model