4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 3 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left intended for 81-R.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [93-S.Acho] at CHI 37. 37-B.Callahan to CLE 42 for 21 yards (34-I.Crowell).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model