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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 58 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for no gain (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model