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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 8

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model