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DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

DEN
36.1%
WAS
63.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Brock Osweiler (DEN): -0.056 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DEN starting Brock Osweiler in place of Trevor Siemian)
  • DEN defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DEN

Cody Latimer WR Questionable Thigh
Paxton Lynch QB Questionable Ankle
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle

WAS

Ryan Anderson LB Out Knee
Zach Brown LB Out Achilles
LeShun Daniels RB Out Hand
Trent Williams T Out Knee
Maurice Harris WR Questionable Back
Samaje Perine RB Questionable Groin
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hamstring
Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Foot
Terrell McClain DE Questionable Toe
Morgan Moses T Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 11
–
WAS 27

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:10 FG DEN (2:10) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 06:19 FG WAS (6:19) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DEN 3 – WAS 3
  • Q2 02:13 TD WAS (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – WAS 9
  • Q3 03:35 FG WAS (3:35) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DEN 3 – WAS 13
  • Q4 12:15 TD WAS (12:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Doctson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – WAS 19
  • Q4 04:29 TD WAS (4:29) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 85-V.Davis for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-S.Barrett]. DEN 3 – WAS 26
  • Q4 01:22 TD DEN (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – WAS 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to WAS 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:19) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DEN 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-B.Fowler MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 10. 16-B.Fowler to DEN 16 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 50%

    (9:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to WAS 3, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-87-J.Taylor. PENALTY on WAS-47-Q.Dunbar, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced at WAS 3.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:11) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DEN 47, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 87-J.Taylor to WAS 46 for 7 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (2:10) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:55) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 21 for 5 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 63%

    (11:39) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus punts 26 yards to WAS 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (6:19) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:00) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DEN 43, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to WAS 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (3:35) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 3 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:43) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to DEN 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Fowler. Penalty on DEN, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles right end to DEN 48 for 18 yards (24-J.Norman).