Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 73

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 13

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 3 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model