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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 54

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Fowler. Penalty on DEN, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.40 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model