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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles right end to DEN 48 for 18 yards (24-J.Norman).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -1.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model