Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 99

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(8:11) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DEN 47, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 87-J.Taylor to WAS 46 for 7 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -4.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.50 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 99, worth -6.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model