4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP