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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to BAL 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model