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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Saturday 2017-12-23 · 16:30 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

IND
26.5%
BAL
73.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.198 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • IND on 3 more days rest than BAL
  • QB edge to IND: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.110 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.107 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 15
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 9 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

IND

Denzelle Good T Out Knee
Donte Moncrief WR Out Ankle
Brandon Williams TE Out Concussion
Jason Vander Laan TE Out Concussion
Rashaan Melvin CB Out Hand

BAL

Jeremy Maclin WR Doubtful Knee
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Illness
Maurice Canady CB Questionable Knee
Carl Davis DT Questionable Shoulder
Anthony Levine S Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 16
–
BAL 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:38 FG BAL (6:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. IND 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 12:19 TD BAL (12:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 12-M.Campanaro for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – BAL 9
  • Q2 07:48 TD IND (7:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 23-F.Gore for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – BAL 10
  • Q2 02:00 FG BAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 199th career field goal. IND 7 – BAL 13
  • Q3 09:29 FG BAL (9:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 200th career FG. Now 200-for-222 FGA. IND 7 – BAL 16
  • Q3 07:18 FG IND (7:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – BAL 16
  • Q3 01:38 FG IND (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. Kick hits right upright and bounces through. IND 13 – BAL 16
  • Q4 08:44 TD BAL (8:44) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – BAL 22
  • Q4 04:37 FG IND (4:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:12) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to BAL 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (10:07) 37-J.Allen right guard to IND 17 for 2 yards (32-T.Green; 50-A.Walker).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (6:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (1:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (23-T.Jefferson), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez, recovered by IND-62-L.Clark at BAL 29. 62-L.Clark to BAL 29 for no gain (69-W.Henry).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 199th career field goal.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (:47) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, recovered by BAL-43-J.Hill at BAL 30. 43-J.Hill to BAL 30 for no gain (52-B.Mingo).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:19) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 28 yards to IND 38, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (9:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 200th career FG. Now 200-for-222 FGA.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 71%

    (7:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-C.Rogers to IND 33 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). BAL-43-J.Hill was injured during the play.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. Kick hits right upright and bounces through.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (7:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left guard to IND 41 for 7 yards (99-M.Judon).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (4:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 50-A.Walker, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-58-T.Basham at BAL 27. 58-T.Basham to BAL 27 for no gain (37-J.Allen).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton (26-M.Canady).