Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BAL defense: -0.198 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- IND offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- IND defense: +0.001 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- IND on 3 more days rest than BAL
- QB edge to IND: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.110 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.107 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 16
IND
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:38 FG BAL (6:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. IND 0 – BAL 3
- Q2 12:19 TD BAL (12:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 12-M.Campanaro for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – BAL 9
- Q2 07:48 TD IND (7:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 23-F.Gore for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – BAL 10
- Q2 02:00 FG BAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 199th career field goal. IND 7 – BAL 13
- Q3 09:29 FG BAL (9:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 200th career FG. Now 200-for-222 FGA. IND 7 – BAL 16
- Q3 07:18 FG IND (7:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – BAL 16
- Q3 01:38 FG IND (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. Kick hits right upright and bounces through. IND 13 – BAL 16
- Q4 08:44 TD BAL (8:44) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – BAL 22
- Q4 04:37 FG IND (4:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – BAL 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:12) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to BAL 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%
(10:07) 37-J.Allen right guard to IND 17 for 2 yards (32-T.Green; 50-A.Walker).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BAL 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(6:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%
(1:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (23-T.Jefferson), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez, recovered by IND-62-L.Clark at BAL 29. 62-L.Clark to BAL 29 for no gain (69-W.Henry).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%
(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 199th career field goal.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22%
(:47) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, recovered by BAL-43-J.Hill at BAL 30. 43-J.Hill to BAL 30 for no gain (52-B.Mingo).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:19) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 28 yards to IND 38, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%
(9:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 200th career FG. Now 200-for-222 FGA.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 71%
(7:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(6:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-C.Rogers to IND 33 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). BAL-43-J.Hill was injured during the play.
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%
(1:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. Kick hits right upright and bounces through.
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67%
(7:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left guard to IND 41 for 7 yards (99-M.Judon).
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Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 11 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(4:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 59 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 50-A.Walker, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-58-T.Basham at BAL 27. 58-T.Basham to BAL 27 for no gain (37-J.Allen).
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 17 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%
(1:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton (26-M.Canady).
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