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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(7:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.44 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model