Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-C.Rogers to IND 33 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). BAL-43-J.Hill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model