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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(1:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. Kick hits right upright and bounces through.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model