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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 37-J.Allen right guard to IND 17 for 2 yards (32-T.Green; 50-A.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.09 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model