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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 50-A.Walker, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-58-T.Basham at BAL 27. 58-T.Basham to BAL 27 for no gain (37-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model