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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (23-T.Jefferson), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez, recovered by IND-62-L.Clark at BAL 29. 62-L.Clark to BAL 29 for no gain (69-W.Henry).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model