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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to LAC 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 29 for 9 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model