LAC @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn

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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles

Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LAC

66.1%

NYJ

33.9%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to LAC: Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.222 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.174 EPA/dropback
LAC offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
LAC defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24

–

NYJ 17

Projected margin: LAC by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LAC

Corey Liuget DT Out Knee

Denzel Perryman LB Out Hamstring

Austin Ekeler RB Questionable Hand

Joe Barksdale T Questionable Hip

Russell Okung T Questionable Groin

NYJ

Brian Winters G Out Abdomen

Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee

Elijah McGuire RB Questionable Illness

Wesley Johnson C Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 14

–

NYJ 7

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 08:59 TD LAC (8:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – NYJ 0
Q3 10:12 TD NYJ (10:12) 29-B.Powell left end for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – NYJ 6
Q3 05:02 TD LAC (5:02) 78-M.Schofield reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – NYJ 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 26%

(12:15) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to LAC 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.
Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(9:23) 8-D.Kaser punts 44 yards to NYJ 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 32 for no gain (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on NYJ-85-N.Sterling, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 32.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58%

(7:58) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to LAC 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin. PENALTY on LAC-87-J.Cumberland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 23.
Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(5:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 23 for 9 yards (31-A.Phillips).
Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(3:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to LAC 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 14 for 6 yards. PENALTY on LAC-25-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(:27) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson ran ob at NYJ 30 for 11 yards.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(14:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to LAC 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 29 for 9 yards (23-T.Brooks).
Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%

(5:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 15 for 4 yards (43-M.Davis; 47-M.Windt).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP

p(convert) 68%

(2:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to LAC 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.
Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(:53) 8-D.Kaser punts 29 yards to NYJ 31, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-57-J.Brown.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(13:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to LAC 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

(11:27) 6-N.Rose 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP

p(convert) 69%

(3:42) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to LAC 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.
Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP

p(convert) 72%

(1:39) 8-D.Kaser punts 37 yards to NYJ 23, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-29-C.Mager.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(14:32) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-T.Benjamin for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 23.
Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(12:42) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 30 for 8 yards (47-M.Windt; 57-J.Brown).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(9:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.
Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(8:11) 8-D.Kaser punts 63 yards to NYJ 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 5 yards (84-S.McGrath).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

(3:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete deep right to 11-R.Anderson.
Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 52 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%

(:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 5 for -7 yards (34-D.Watt).