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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:53) 8-D.Kaser punts 29 yards to NYJ 31, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-57-J.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model