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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 50

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to LAC 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.25 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model