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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 6-N.Rose 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model