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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 8-D.Kaser punts 37 yards to NYJ 23, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-29-C.Mager.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP