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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 30 for 8 yards (47-M.Windt; 57-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model