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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 54

New York Jets 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model